Expectation of return is extremely important in the "planning"
portion of financial planning. When planning for future retirement
needs, for example, one must make some assumptions regarding
anticipated rates of return. A variation of only two or three
percentage points can make a huge difference in the projected
ending balance of a retirement savings program over twenty or
thirty years.
Many financial planners are reporting what
they believe to be excessive and unrealistic expectations by some
clients, especially in regards to stock market returns. During the
decade of the 1990. s, the average annual compound return of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average was 18.4%. On the heels of that
performance, a Gallup poll showed that investors younger than
forty as a group expect average returns of 22% a year for the
first decade of the twenty-first century. Are these expectations
indeed too high? A historical perspective may be helpful. If one
looks at all rolling ten-year periods since 1928,(ex. 1928-1937,
1929-1938,etc.) through 1999, the DJIA. s returns have exceeded
18% only six times. The average annual return for that entire
period has been around 12 %, aided greatly by the returns of the
last fifteen years. As a result, most financial planners would
advise one to use expected returns from the stock portion of their
investments in the 9% to 12% range. Expected returns for the fixed
income portion should generally be based upon a lower historical
return of 5% to 7%. Having realistic expectations should result in
better planning and help reduce the possibility of serious
disappointment.