Evaluation of portfolio performance, the bottom line of the investing
process, is an important aspect of interest to all investors
and money managers. The framework for evaluating portfolio performance
consists of measuring both the realized return and the differential
risk of the portfolio to use to compare a portfolio. s
performance, and recognizing any constraints that the portfolio
manager may face. A 12% return, by itself, is a fairly meaningless
figure. It must be viewed in comparison to the performance, over the
same timeframe, of alternative investments bearing a similar level
of risk.
Remember, one can only measure return in relation to the risk
taken. Investing is always a two-dimensional process based on return
and risk. These two factors are opposite sides of the same coin, and
both must be evaluated if intelligent decisions are to be made.
Therefore, if we know nothing about the risk of and investment,
there is little we can say about its performance. Given the risk
that all investors face, it is totally inadequate to consider only
the returns from various investment alternatives. Although all
investors prefer higher returns, they are also risk averse. To
evaluate portfolio performance properly, we must determine whether
the returns are large enough given the risk involved. If we are to
assess performance carefully, we must evaluate performance on a
risk-adjusted basis.
We must make relative comparisons in performance measurement, and
an important related issue is the benchmark to be used in evaluating
the performance of a portfolio. The essence of performance
evaluation in investments is to compare the returns obtained on some
portfolio with the returns that could have been obtained from a
comparable alternative. The measurement process must involve
relevant and obtainable alternatives; that is, the benchmark
portfolio must be a legitimate alternative that accurately
reflects the objectives of the portfolio owners.
An equity portfolio consisting of S&P 500 stocks should be evaluated
relative to the S&P 500 Index or other equity portfolios
that could be constructed from the Index, after adjusting for
the risk involved. On the other hand, a portfolio of small capitalization
stocks should not be judged against that same benchmark.
If a bond portfolio manager. s objective is to invest in
bonds rate A or higher, it would be inappropriate to compare his or
her performance with that of a junk bond manager. Even more
difficult to evaluate are equity funds that hold some madcap and
small stocks while holding many S&P 500 stocks. Comparisons for
such a widely diversified group can be quite difficult.
The S&P 500 has been the most frequently used benchmark for evaluating the
performance of institutional portfolios such as those of pension
funds and mutual funds. The S&P 100 and the Wilshire 5000 index
are also popular. Many observers now agree that multiple benchmarks can
be more appropriate to use when evaluating portfolio returns. All
investors should understand that even in today. s investment
world of computers and databases, exact, precise, universally
agreed upon methods of portfolio evaluation remain an elusive
goal. An evaluation is imperative, though, and it is unfortunate
that some studies have indicated that most investors don.
t have a good idea how well their portfolios are actually
performing.
One warning about published performance is warranted. When investors
are selecting money managers to turn their money over to, they
typically evaluate these managers only on the basis of their published
performance statistics. If the published track record looks
good, that is typically enough to convince many investors to invest
in a particular mutual fund. However, the past is no guarantee
of an investment manager. s future. Short-term results may
be particularly misleading.