Individual stocks (and the market as a
whole) have a tendency to go up and down over the course of
time. Long term investment strategies are geared to capitalize on the fact
that despite these fluctuations, the market as a whole continues to
increase as the years go by. Therefore investors
can ride out
the bad times and still walk away with significant
gains. However, think of how much bigger the gains
could be if the low periods could be avoided. Or better
yet, if investments could be purchased during the down times (when
prices are low) and sold at the
high times (when prices are high). This is exactly what some
people attempt to do through the implementation of market timing
strategies.
Market timing strategies attempt to analyze available data in
order to predict future market activity. While using this technique
investors draw from two basic pools of information.
- Technical data. Deals strictly with
quantitative information. Charts such things as price movements
and levels of trading. This data is used to establish and predict
trends.
- Fundamental data. This data paints a much broader picture. It
includes not only quantitative information but also qualitative
information. This data reflects developing economic indicators
that might affect price levels.
Does market timing work? The answer to this question is yes and
no. There are some instances where people have been able to predict
swings in the market and to act accordingly. However, this is
exceedingly difficult (if not downright impossible) to do on a
regular basis. The fact is that most people who try to time the
market wind up with poor results. There are two reasons for this
phenomenon. 1) They guess wrong. The individual may read the market
incorrectly, apply the data incorrectly, or the market may act
erratically. 2) They act too late. Many people dump stocks after
they realize that it is performing poorly. Unfortunately, by this
time they have already suffered significant loses. Additionally,
many people buy stocks after they hear that it is performing well,
but by then they have missed out on the brunt of the gain. In affect
what they are doing is buying high and selling low, which is 180
degrees opposite of what they are trying to accomplish.
Market timing will continue to
exist into the foreseeable future because people are allured by the
potential payoff. However, perhaps it would be wise to consider
the technical data associated with this strategy. Upon analysis market timing should always
be implemented with great caution.